Buffalo has six wins and Cleveland has two, so why are the Browns favored in this game? Well take a closer look, in Buffalo’s six wins, the combined record of those teams are just 9-44. So needless to say, the Bills have not played a difficult schedule yet this season. Now there’s Cleveland, who has been the definition of underachieving. The Browns dropped a brutal game to Brandon Allen and the Denver Broncos last Sunday. The sharp money is coming in on Cleveland here, with the public backing the Bills. This makes for an easy decision. Always fade the public in the NFL. Hold your breath and take the Browns, the sharp money is the right play here.
PICK: Browns -3
Surprise, surprise, Green Bay is getting overvalued at home. The Packers are receiving 63-percent of the bets, but just 54% of the money, according to The Action Network. You would expect Aaron Rodgers and company to bounce back after a dismal performance last Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers, but not so fast my friend. I’m worried about Green Bay’s rushing defense here, which is allowing almost 130 yards per game on the ground. Christian McCaffrey has a big day and adds to his MVP resume. Take the Panthers.
PICK: Panthers +5
The public money on Kansas City this week is daunting and should scare anyone off backing Patrick Mahomes as nearly a touchdown favorite on the road in his first game back. The Chiefs did a nice job stopping Dalvin Cook last week but I’m not sure they’ll have the same success with Derrick Henry this week. I expect the rest of the team to relax just a bit with Mahomes under center, and Tennessee does just enough as the home dog here to cover the number. Take the points.
PICK: Titans +5.5
The money is certainly flowing in the Rams direction, but I’m not buying it. Pittsburgh has momentum and gets the benefit of home field in what should be a brisk afternoon in the Steel City. Additionally, I do not trust Jared Goff in this spot, even if the team is coming off the bye. My one concern here is Pittsburgh’s offense getting bogged down against the tough Ram front, but I’ll take three and the hook here and hope the Steelers rally around Mason Rudolph once again. This line should climb higher as we get closer to game time with lots of public action on the Rams.
PICK: Steelers +3.5
I’m not sure what to make of Jameis Winston in this matchup. The enigmatic quarterback has a chance to lead the league in both touchdown passes and interceptions, which would be a historic but dubious distinction. It’s sad that I might trust the rookie Kyler Murray more in this game, but that seems to be the reality. The Cards have appeared to improve slightly each week that the Kingsbury-Murray duo has been running the show. They gave the San Francisco 49ers a game last Thursday and I expect the long rest to only help Arizona’s preparation for this game. There’s no way I can trust Tampa Bay as a favorite of longer than a field goal. Take the points.
PICK: Cardinals +4.5
Bonus Pick: New York Giants at New York Jets
This game carries more weight than you think and both teams will be fired up for what on paper looks like a snooze fest. Neither side has been able to stop anyone on defense this season as both teams are allowing a combined 54.7 points per game this season. With the total being just 44, and an up-tempo expected from both teams, I think the over is a safe play here.
PICK: Over 44
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